The Power of Preexisting Beliefs
New research reveals how deeply-held beliefs can undermine strategic thinking — and what leaders can do about it.
As business leaders, do we pride ourselves on making rational, data-driven decisions? But what if our minds are playing tricks on us, subtly biasing our judgments without us even realizing it? New psychological research suggests this may be happening more often than we’d like to admit — with potentially major consequences for our organizations.
This post is based on Toward Parsimony in Bias Research: A Proposed Common Framework of Belief-Consistent Information Processing for a Set of Biases published in Perspectives on Psychological Science
A groundbreaking study by psychologists Aileen Oeberst and Roland Imhoff reveals that many of our cognitive biases stem from deeply-held beliefs that act as “filters” on how we process information. These beliefs are often so ingrained that we don’t even recognize their influence.
For example, most of us hold the implicit belief that “I make correct assessments.” While confidence is important for leaders, this belief can lead us to:
- Discount contradictory evidence
- Overestimate our own objectivity
- Assume others who disagree with us are biased
The researchers found that once we hold a belief, we engage in “belief-consistent information processing.” In other words, we selectively seek out information that confirms what we already think and discount anything that challenges our views.
This “confirmation bias” can be especially dangerous in business contexts:
- A CEO might cling to a failing strategy, focusing only on small signs of success
- A hiring manager might overlook red flags that don’t fit their initial impression of a candidate
- A product team might dismiss customer feedback that contradicts their vision
While these mental shortcuts are deeply ingrained, the study suggests some strategies for overcoming them:
- Actively seek out opposing viewpoints. Make it a habit to ask “What am I missing?” or “Who disagrees and why?”
- Create formal devil’s advocate roles. Assign team members to argue against the prevailing view in important decisions.
- Broaden your information sources. If you usually read industry publication X, try its competitor Y to get a different perspective.
- Slow down. Many biases operate unconsciously when we make snap judgments. Build in time for reflection and reconsideration of initial reactions.
- Leverage diversity. Teams with varied backgrounds and viewpoints are more likely to challenge shared assumptions.
The uncomfortable truth is that we are all susceptible to these biases — even those of us who consider ourselves highly rational. By understanding the outsized influence of our preexisting beliefs, we can take steps to counteract them and make truly informed decisions.
This research suggests that the most successful leaders may not be those with the most confidence in their judgments, but those most willing to question them.
In an increasingly complex business landscape, the ability to overcome our hidden biases may be the key differentiator between companies that adapt and thrive, and those that stagnate. By fostering a culture of intellectual humility and rigorous self-examination, leaders can harness the power of truly open-minded decision making.
Take a moment to reflect:
What deeply-held beliefs might be influencing your strategic decisions without you realizing it?
How can you and your team create systems to challenge those assumptions and broaden your perspective?
